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ToxSci Advance Access originally published online on February 17, 2009
Toxicological Sciences 2009 109(1):4-17; doi:10.1093/toxsci/kfp036
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© The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

Kenneth T. Bogen*,1, Alison C. Cullen{dagger}, H. Christopher Frey{ddagger} and Paul S. Price§

* Exponent Health Sciences, Oakland, California 94607 {dagger} Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 {ddagger} Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695 § Formerly with The LifeLine Group, Annandale, Virginia 22003

1 To whom correspopndence should be addressed at Exponent Health Sciences, 500 12th Street, Oakland, CA 94607. Fax: (510) 268-5099. E-mail: kbogen{at}exponent.com.

Received August 20, 2008; accepted February 8, 2009


  Abstract

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts.

Key Words: applied probability analysis; assessment methods; environmental chemicals; modeling; Monte Carlo; toxicity risk characterization.


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