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© 1989 Oxford University Press

meeting-report

A Blind Reanalysis of a Random Subset of NCI Bioassay Studies: Agreement between Rats and Mice

Introduction to Symposium

S. STANLEY YOUNG

Statistical Services, Glaxo Inc. 5 Moore Drive, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709

Received July 15, 1988; revision received August 10, 1988; Three groups of statisticians were asked to reanalyze a random subset of 25 companion rat and mouse NCI bioassay studies. Initially, the correspondence between rat and mouse studies was not given. After each group devised decision rules for declaring carcinogenicity, applied the rules, and reported the results, the correspondence was disclosed. Three complicated and different decision rules were devised. These decision rules differed extensively not only in their mathematical detail, but also in their biological end points. Each appeared reasonable, but they produced very different results. For example, the probability of a compound being declared positive ranged from 31 to 96%. Previously, the NCI had declared 46% of the studies positive. Many features of the analysis of long-term studies are explored in the three accompanying papers.


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